The study mirrors projections by the U.S. Census Bureau that the country’s white population will start to decline in absolute numbers by 2025. Minority populations, particularly Latinos, continue to grow thanks to higher fertility rates, and the Census projects that the U.S. will be majority-minority around the mid-2040s.

“The future of the growth in this country has to do with racial minorities,” says William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution. “If we didn’t have minorities in this country, we would be like Japan, which is very old and has a declining labor force and declining population.”

The move toward a majority-minority nation isn’t likely to reverse itself, Johnson says, adding that several more states, including Vermont, South Carolina, Oregon and Tennessee, could soon see natural decreases in white population in the next few years.